A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
